Modulation of Land Photosynthesis by the Indian Ocean Dipole: Satellite‐Based Observations and CMIP6 Future Projections

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a major climate variability in the tropics which drives abiotic stress associated with heavy rainfalls and severe droughts, is not much understood terms of its role carbon cycle, while El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related terrestrial cycle variation has been intensively studied. Here, we investigate IOD's impact on land photosynthesis over ocean rim countries during austral spring using satellite-based gross primary productivity (GPP) Earth System Model simulations produced Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). IOD independently affects GPP significant positive partial correlation coefficients () most Africa India, negative southern China, Indo-China peninsula, maritime continent, Australia, mostly driven by precipitation variations; this obviously differs from widespread pattern induced ENSO. The recent extremely 2019 caused canonical IOD-affected patterns, however, extreme impacts. Furthermore, though large inter-model spreads exist, CMIP6 multimodel median can basically capture main characteristics patterns. Importantly, predicted to occur more frequently future warming scenarios. projections suggest that it will exert larger impacts variations central eastern Africa, Sumatra, western southeastern Australia stronger enhanced explained variance, but less east northeastern Australia. Therefore, besides ENSO, understanding provide us new insights into regional global interannual variability.